By: Brian Johnson
Many gun owners think of risk in isolated terms—a home intruder, a carjacking, or an escalating confrontation. But just like in aviation, risk in armed self-defense doesn’t simply add up—it multiplies. One small mistake might not be disastrous on its own, but when multiple risk factors align, they can create a dangerous situation with unintended consequences.
A recent tragedy near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport illustrates how compounding risks can turn a routine scenario into a fatal disaster. On January 29, 2025, an American Airlines passenger jet collided midair with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River, killing all 67 people on board. The investigation revealed that the helicopter was flying above its authorized altitude, placing it in the path of the descending jet. This tragic accident was not the result of one single mistake but rather a series of oversights—airspace complexity, pilot miscalculations, and regulatory gaps—that compounded into catastrophe. (ksn.com)
Gun owners face similar compounding risks. In a self-defense scenario, multiple factors—stress, adrenaline, poor training, legal misunderstandings, and situational misjudgments—can converge, increasing the likelihood of a tragic outcome. Understanding how these risks stack up is critical for responsible self-defense.
How Risks Multiply in Armed Self-Defense
Consider this scenario:
- You’re carrying concealed and walking to your car at night.
- A stranger approaches quickly, and you feel a potential threat.
- Adrenaline surges, affecting your decision-making and motor skills.
- Your situational awareness narrows, making you miss key details.
- The person reaches into their pocket—your mind races, interpreting it as a weapon.
If only one or two of these factors were present, you might react appropriately. But with all of them combined, the risk of misidentifying the threat or overreacting skyrockets. If the person was simply reaching for their phone or keys, the situation could turn tragic in an instant.
Breaking the Chain of Risk in Self-Defense
Just as pilots must recognize and mitigate risks before they escalate, gun owners should take a proactive approach to risk reduction. Here’s how:
- Train Under Stress
- Shooting at the range is not the same as drawing under real-life pressure.
- Train for high-adrenaline scenarios using drills that simulate stress, such as timed shooting or force-on-force training.
- Improve Situational Awareness
- Avoid tunnel vision by continuously scanning your environment.
- Identify potential threats early so you have time to de-escalate or evade.
- Understand Legal and Ethical Responsibilities
- Know when lethal force is justified in your state.
- Avoid misinterpreting situations—someone acting aggressively doesn’t always mean they are armed or intend harm.
- Maintain Proper Firearm Handling
- Keep your firearm secured and holstered unless drawing is absolutely necessary.
- Practice proper trigger discipline—your finger should only be on the trigger when you’ve positively identified a lethal threat.
- Plan for the Aftermath
- If you ever have to use your firearm, your legal and emotional battle is just beginning.
- Have legal protection, such as self-defense insurance, and know how to handle police interactions post-incident.
Final Takeaway: Responsible Carry Requires Proactive Risk Management
The D.C. midair collision happened because multiple risk factors were overlooked and compounded into disaster. Armed self-defense follows the same principles—small misjudgments, adrenaline, and poor preparation can add up to a deadly mistake. But by recognizing how risks multiply, training effectively, and making responsible decisions, gun owners can break the chain of risk before it turns into tragedy.
Carrying a firearm is about more than just having a tool for protection—it’s about managing risk intelligently. Stay trained, stay aware, and stay responsible.